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Post-Recession US Employment
Menzie Chinn - Laurent Ferrara - Valérie Mignon
eBook Edition: 2013
 
This paper aims at investigating the relationship between employment and GDP in the United States. We disentangle trend and cyclical employment components by estimating a non-linear Okun’s law based on a smooth transition error-correction model that simultaneously accounts for long-term relationships between growth and employment and short-run instability over the business cycle. Our findings based on out-of-sample conditional forecasts show that, since the exit of the 2008-09 recession, US employment is on average around 1% below the level implied by the long run outputemployment relationship, meaning that about 1.2 million of the trend employment loss cannot be attributed to the identified cyclical factors. (From Author)

eBook Contents

Highlights - Abstract - Points clefs - Résumé court - Introduction - A brief review of the recent literature - An econometric approach to estimating Okun’s law - Results for the US economy - Conclusion - References

eBook License: Copyrighted (Personal Use Only by downloading from CEPII)

Free PDF eBook - 462 Kb - 23 Pages